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根据《2000财政年度国防授权法》向国会报告中华人民共和国的军事力量
根据《2000财政年度国防授权法》第1202款关于“中华人民共和国年度军事力量报告”的规定,国防部长应每年提交一份报告“关于中国的当前及未来军事战略,报告中应针对目前和今后20年人民解放军的可能的军事技术的发展,中国的安全战略和军事战略,以及军事组织和作战观念.
Section 1202, “Annual Report on Military Power of the People’s Republic of China,” of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, Public Law 106-65, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report “on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military-technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next 20 years.”
内容提要
中国在区域性的政治和经济实力的迅速崛起,以成为全球当今战略环境的一个重要因素,对本地区和世界发挥着重要影响. 美国欢迎出现一个和平与繁荣的中国,鼓励中国作为一个负责任的国际利益,并对全球的健康与发展承担更大的责任. 然而, 中国还有许多不确定性的未来,包括中国扩充军力,权力如何使用.
中国人民解放军,正在谋求全面转型,由在其领土的陆军大规模消耗战争,转变为能够打赢短期的, 高强度冲突,对付高技术对手--中国指为"局部战争条件下的信息化" 中国的军事实力目前仍然有限,但是, 正如在2006年的四年国防报告中所讲, 它"具有很大的潜力,在军事上与美国的竞争,在未来时间可能抵消美国传统的军事优势. "
中国短期内的焦点是准备在台湾海峡的可能性军事行动,包括美国的干预, 看来是它现代化规划一个重要的驱动. 不过,分析中国的军事采购与战略思维,表明北京也可能因为资源冲突或领土争端,而在其它地区发生突发事件.
中国的军事转型, 在发展速度和规模上,近年来一直在增长, 购买外国先进武器,刺激了本国国防和科学技术产业,而且对武装部队的改革影响深远.中国军队日益扩大的军事能力,是改变东亚的军事平衡的一个重要因素中国的战略能力的改善所产生的影响远远超出了亚太地区.
中国战略力量的现代化,是提高其战略的打击能力,例如东风-31洲际弹道导弹, 2006年初取得了初步的威胁. 中国的太空计划的标志,是2007年1月成功试验一种能直接攻击卫星的武器, 反卫星武器对人类的航天飞行构成了危险,并危及到所有空间航天的国家的资产. 中国在继续追求传统的陆地,空中,海洋,以及空间和网络空间的现代战场.
外部世界有限的了解中国的军事现代化的动机,决策与关键能力. 中国领导人尚未充分解释中国人民解放军扩充军力的目的或预期目的. 中国的行动,在某些方面似乎越来越不符合其申明的政策. 中国实际的国防支出仍远高于官方公布的数字. 这种缺乏透明度的中国军事事务自然会遭到国际社会的不理解和迅速的反应.
China’s rapid rise as a regional political and economic power with global aspirations is an important element of today’s strategic environment – one that has signifi cant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China, and it encourages China to participate as a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the health and success of the global system. However, much uncertainty surrounds the future course China’s leaders will set for their country, including in the area of China’s expanding military power and how that power might be used.The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fi ghting and winning short-duration, highintensity confl icts against high-tech adversaries – which China refers to as “local wars under conditions of informatization.” China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance, at present, remains limited but, as noted in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, it “has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and fi eld disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages.”China’s near-term focus on preparing for military contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, appears to be an important driver of its modernization plans. However, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also generating capabilities for other regional contingencies, such as confl ict over resources or territory. The pace and scope of China’s military transformation has increased in recent years, fueled by continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, and far reaching reforms of the armed forces. The expanding military capabilities of China’s armed forces are a major factor in changing East Asian military balances; improvements in China’s strategic capabilities have ramifi cations far beyond the Asia Pacific region.China’s strategic forces modernization is enhancing strategic strike capabilities, as evidenced by the DF-31 intercontinental range ballistic missile, which achieved initial threat availability in 2006. China’s counterspace program – punctuated by the January 2007 successful test of a direct-ascent, anti-satellite weapon – poses dangers to human space fl ight and puts at risk the assets of all space faring nations. China’s continued pursuit of area denial and anti-access strategies is expanding from the traditional land, air, and sea dimensions of the modern battlefi eld to include space and cyber-space. The outside world has limited knowledge of the motivations, decision-making, and key capabilities supporting China’s military modernization. China’s leaders have yet to explain adequately the purposes or desired endstates of the PLA’s expanding military capabilities. China’s actions in certain areas increasingly appear inconsistent with its declaratory policies. Actual Chinese defense expenditures remain far above offi cially disclosed fi gures. This lack of transparency in China’s military affairs will naturally and understandably prompt international responses that hedge against the unknown. |
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